WENATCHEE, Wash. —This year’s Washington’s apple harvest is expected to increase about 29% over 2022 to roughly 134 million bushels, said Todd Fryhover, Washington Apple Commission president.

“We have a return to what we consider a normal crop,” he added.

The 2022-23 production totaled 104 million bushels. The last time Washington’s apple harvest dipped lower was 2009, he said.

Last year’s cool spring resulted in a short window for pollination, but this year’s weather was significantly better.

“It all starts at bloom time,” Fryhover said.

In 2020-21 and 2021-22, the apple crop was around 122 million bushels. This year’s crop is anticipated to be almost identical to 2019-20.

Differing forecasts

More than 90% of packers participate in the Washington survey, Fryhover said, making estimates reliable.

But the Washington apple industry is far more optimistic than the U.S. Department of Agriculture. In an Aug. 11 report, the agency predicted apple production would increase 9% in Washington.

While the USDA forecast a 1% production jump nationwide to 9.91 billion pounds, the U.S. Apple Association anticipates a 1.5% jump to more than 250 million bushels, or more than 10.5 billion pounds.

The industry group released its analysis during its annual meeting in mid-August.

The association, known as USApple, touts its figures as more comprehensive because the USDA only looks at the top seven producing apple states.

Trends nationwide

New York, a significant producer, is predicted to have its worst harvest since 2012, according to the USDA.

A mild winter was followed by a warm spring. Most apple varieties need a cold winter.

Cynthia Haskins, New York Apple Association president and CEO, said the USDA forecast might not materialize.

Her association estimates a 28 million bushel harvest, still below the 2022’s 32 million bushel harvest, she added, in an email.

Michigan had no major spring frosts, but will find it difficult to surpass its record 32 million bushel harvest of 2022.

“I’d still say it’s considerably more than an average year,” said Don Armock, owner of Riveridge Produce Marketing, a large apple producer in Michigan.

Changing preferences

Fryhover said the makeup of Washington’s crop illustrates changing consumer preferences.

Mainstream varieties have lost favor, while the alternatives have gained market share.

For example, a decade ago, Red Delicious represented 31.1% of Washington’s harvest. This year that’s forecast to drop to 13%.

Golden Delicious has dipped from 8.1% to 3.5% in 10 years.

The biggest surge is from Honeycrisp, which jumped from 4.7% of the crop in 2014-15 to 14.7% now.

Organic apples also made a huge leap, from 6.8% to 15.8%.

Proprietary apples as a whole jumped from 4% to 9.4% in the same time period.

“Our crop has changed so much in the last 10 years. We’re really capturing that better eating experience,” Fryhover said.

National trends, in general, mirror Washington, the nation’s largest producer.

USApple highlighted the rise of “other varieties” — No. 4 for production nationwide — as evidence of consumers’ growing appetites for different types of apples.

Gala is the most produced apple in Washington (19.8%) and the nation (18%).

Washington crop

Gala — 19.8%

Honeycrisp — 14.7%

Granny Smith — 13.8%

Red Delicious — 13%

Fuji — 11.7%

United States crop

Gala — 18%

Red Delicious — 12.4%

Honeycrisp — 11.2%

Other varieties — 10%

Fuji — 10%