Market analyst Darin Newsom, of Omaha, Neb.

The wheat market barely rippled when Russia recently threatened to exit a grain export deal with Turkey, the United Nations and Ukraine, grain analysts say.

The agreement allows food shipments from three Black Sea ports.

Chicago wheat futures opened 12 to 15 cents higher on Sunday evening and fell 5 cents before settling at 4 cents up at closing, said Byron Behne, senior grain merchant for Northwest Grain Growers in Walla Walla, Wash.

Soft white wheat ranged from $7.45 to $7.70 per bushel on the Portland market.

“When they complain about this stuff, it used to give us bigger rallies, but ever since November, the first time the deal was renewed … every time they complain about the deal, the reaction has been smaller than it was prior to that first big renewal,” Behne said. “The market is maybe looking at it as kind of a ‘boy who cried wolf’ situation.”

“Number one, you never believe what Russia’s going to say anyway,” said Darin Newsom, Omaha, Neb., analyst. Even if Russia and Ukraine’s wheat crops fail, he doesn’t foresee much impact.

Dan Steiner, grain market analyst in Boardman, Ore., said the market is treating the threat as rhetorical.

“If they get aggressive and warships start patrolling the Black Sea or mines start being put back in place, yeah, all kinds of crazy things could happen — and that includes fabulous grain prices and huge rallies on the futures market,” he said. “But if that doesn’t happen, if cooler heads prevail, things are going to come down to just regular supply and demand, weather and everything else.”

The deal, which allowed Russia and Ukraine to export grain unfettered, was renewed for a second time in mid-March for 120 days, but Russia indicated it would only agree for 60 days.

“People are kind of letting that slide, just because, ‘Well, they’re not objecting to it for 60 days at least,” Behne said. “Until we get to May 18, which would be 60 days, they’ll either pull out of it then or it’ll continue just like it has the last few times it’s come up for renewal.”

If Russia does pull out of the deal, prices might go up, but not as dramatically as when the war began, Behne said.

He suspects Russia may wait to see how its crops are looking as the spring continues.

If it looks like Russia will have a big crop, “they’re going to want to keep the export markets flowing,” he said, adding that if Russia has a drought and won’t ship as much grain, it might not care as much about export business.

“It might be more that when prices get down to a certain point, they complain and threaten to try to maintain some sort of minimum price level…,” he said.

The experts agree that weather patterns across the U.S. will be a bigger factor than Russia’s stance.

Newsom expects a spring and summer rally in all but the Chicago wheat market. In the Kansas City market, general non-commercial funds recently rolled from a net short to a net long, meaning investors expect the price to increase, he said.

“If they want to continue to buy, we’ll let them,” he said. “If they’re wanting to push the market higher, they’re willing to buy, I’m just going to ride along with them.”

Steiner agrees.

Farmers have sold less of the 2022 crop than they normally would have by now, and have “practically zero” of the 2023 crop on the books, he said. If there isn’t a bad weather event or a crop failure, it will put a “ton of pressure” on the cash side of the soft white wheat market by fall, he said.

Most farmers have revenue protection on about 80% or more of their crop, Steiner said. There’s no real downside for farmers in that position right now, he said.

Behne believes the wheat market is priced at the lower end of a range right now. The upper end would be between $8 to $9 per bushel, closer to $8 without a significant crop problem, he said.

The U.S. hard red wheat crop is struggling, “but it might take Europe, Russia or somebody else developing a problem along with us to really get people concerned about things,” Behne said.