It’s April 17th — time for an election-year political reality check.

The official May 17 primary day for Oregon is one month away. But with ballots appearing in mailboxes over the next two weeks, the timeline for campaigns to make their case is even shorter.

“Primary month” 

Texas had its primary March 1. Oregon’s is officially on May 17, tied for fifth earliest among the states.

But Oregon’s primary “election day” is more like an “primary month.” The state’s vote-by-mail system will start sending ballots to voters on April 28.

Most will be returned well before the third Thursday of May, when the first results will be reported by Oregon’s Secretary of State.

Top political party: None

As of April 12, there are 2,971,809 registered voters in Oregon.

The largest bloc: “Non-affiliated,” with 1,027,139 voters — just over 34.5% of all voters. 

The vast majority of non-affiliated voters are people who were automatically registered to vote when doing business with the Oregon DMV. The state sends a card to the newly registered voters asking if they would like to include a political party choice. Most don’t. 

Top bloc primary votes: None

None of those over 1 million non-affiliated voters can cast a ballot on May 17. The state allows each party to determine who gets to vote.

Both Democrats and Republicans have chosen to keep their primaries closed.  Only the state’s 1,018,350 registered Democrats can vote in the Democratic primary. The Republican primary is restricted to the GOP’s 725,055 registered members.

California and Washington are among states with primaries that allow all voters to cast ballots in primaries, with the top two finishers advancing to the general election, regardless of party affiliation.

Oregon voters have rejected two ballot measures in the past two decades to switch to open primaries.

Fractional factional victory

Just 4% of registered voters will decide one of the top three candidates on the Nov. 8 general election ballot, according to Portland-based DHM Research.

The number crunching goes like this: Republicans account for 24% of registered voters. Their closed primary is restricted to party members. Non-presidential primaries usually result in far fewer voters actually casting ballots.

The 19 GOP names on the ballot for governor will splinter votes into a string of fractions, with the victor receiving as little as 20% of votes cast in the Republican primary.

Major candidate skips May altogether

Former Sen. Betsy Johnson, D-Scappoose, isn’t on any May primary ballot. She plans to submit just She’s planning on turning in just over 24,000 valid signatures to the Secretary of State by the end of August in order to debut on the Nov. 8 general election ballot along with the primary winners.

Oregon’s U.S. House seats usually have “No Vacancy” signs

Open congressional seats are a precious jewel for politicians. Hard to find, but held tightly when won.

This year, Oregon has two such gems: the new 6th Congressional District centered on the Salem area and the 4th Congressional District that includes Eugene, Corvallis and Roseburg. 

Since the start of the 21st century, just eight people have held one of Oregon’s five congressional seats. One Republican and one Democrat were forced to resign amid scandals – and were replaced by members of their own party. 

The current Oregon delegation to the U.S. House were first elected in 1988, 1996, 2008 and 2010. The newest member of the delegation — U.S. Rep. Cliff Bentz, R-Ontario, was elected in 2020 after U.S. Rep. Greg Walden, R-Hood River, retired following two decades in office.

Primary challenge would be historic upset

Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner of Terrebonne is mounting an insurgent bid to beat incumbent U.S. Rep. Kurt Schrader, D-Canby, in the Democratic primary for the 5th district.

If she wins, it would be the first time since 1980 that an incumbent U.S. House member from Oregon would lose a primary. The last upset was 42 years ago when U.S. Rep. Robert Duncan, D-Portland, lost the 1980 Democratic primary in the 3rd district. 

The winner was a political activist named Ron Wyden. After 15 years in the House, Wyden won a 1996 special election to replace U.S. Sen. Bob Packwood, R-Oregon, who had resigned because of a sex scandal. Wyden is seeking a fifth full six-year term in 2022.

House is not a home – in the House

Oregon legislators have to live in their districts to run for office. Not so members of Congress.

The U.S. Constitution does not require U.S. House members to be residents of their districts – just of the state from which they are elected.

Former Multnomah County Commissioner Loretta Smith announced last summer that she was running for the new 6th Congressional District seat – before the Legislature had come up with a map for its location.

When the new district was finalized in December, Smith’s home near Wilkes Park in Portland was well northeast of the the 6th district boundary.

Duo dealing with address question in 5th district.

McLeod-Skinner is the most liberal candidate running in the 5th district, while former Happy Valley Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer is one of the most conservative candidate in the Republican primary.

But both share a common quandry in their quest to beat Schrader. They live just outside the district. 

McLeod-Skinner has a mailing address of Terrebonne in Deschutes County. But her home is in the portion of Crooked River Ranch that is in Jefferson County.

Chavez-DeRemer lives in a portion of Clackamas County just outside of the district.

is running in the Republican primary for the 5th district. She’s the former mayor of Happy Valley, which is in a portion of Clackamas County beyond the 5th district boundary.

 It would be difficult for Schrader to hit either McLeod-Skinner or Chavez-DeRemer as carpetbaggers.

When the new district maps were publicly released late last year, Schrader found that the largest portion of his constituency had been lopped off and added to the new 6th district.

Schrader considered running in the more familiar territory of the 6th district before opting to stick with the 5th district, which includes his home in Canby.

New seat draws big crowd

The crowd running for the new 6th district congressional seat is second only to the platoon of candidates seeking the governorship in terms of sheer numbers. 

The open seat has drawn 13 candidates, including three state lawmakers looking to make the jump from Salem to Washington, D.C.

A wildcard is newcomer Carrick Flynn, who has received $1 million in support from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.

Vote for me because I can’t

One of the oddities of the residency rule for congressional candidates is that they can run for seats outside of districts where they live – but can’t vote for themselves. The ballots they receive from the state will list candidates representing their home address.