Cases drop in Eastern Oregon counties while OHSU predicts ‘herd immunity’ by year’s end

Published 10:00 am Thursday, October 21, 2021

PENDLETON — Coronavirus cases are on a consistent decline in several parts of Eastern Oregon, according to a weekly report from the Oregon Health Authority.

Much of the following is based on data disclosed in that report.

Umatilla County has reported declining cases for at least four consecutive weeks, dropping from more than 506 cases in mid-September to 302 cases last week. The county’s infection rate per capita during that period has reported a steep decrease.

Union County has seen a similar drop in cases during that same time period, from 167 in mid-September to 74.

But in other Eastern Oregon counties, including Morrow and Wallowa, cases aren’t budging.

The two counties have not reported a consistent decline in cases over the past month, bucking a statewide trend where infection has consistently dropped from record levels seen during the delta variant surge.

Each of the four counties, however, continue to report case rates and positive test rates that are far higher than Western Oregon’s more populous counties, including those in the Portland metro area.

Until last week, Wallowa County had reported positive test rates higher than 20 percent for three consecutive weeks, a rate that’s higher than most Eastern Oregon counties. Over the past month, Multnomah County has never reported a rate higher than 6 percent.

During that same time period, Wallowa County reported case rates per capita that were nearly four times higher than Multnomah County, which has more than 800,000 more people.

However, Wallowa County’s weekly cases over the past month have only once topped 50, while Multnomah County only once reported less than 1,000.

A recent report from Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, suggests the worst of the delta variant may be over in Oregon within the next two months. The forecast shows a steep decline going into the holiday season, and the possibility of herd immunity reached by the end of the year.

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