SALEM — A sharp increase in COVID-19 cases could push at least 12 Oregon counties, including Baker, into the extreme risk level April 30, requiring the most severe restrictions the state can impose on businesses and activities, Gov. Kate Brown said Friday, April 23.

Those restrictions include a ban on indoor dining at restaurants and bars.

Baker County hasn’t been in the extreme category since Feb. 4.

The county moved into the high risk category on Friday, April 23.

Baker County previously would have qualified for the extreme risk category, starting that day, based on the 79 new cases it reported during the last two-week measuring period, April 3-17. The threshold for extreme risk is 60 cases over two weeks.

But Brown changed the system so that no county, regardless of its case counts, would move into the extreme risk category so long as fewer than 300 COVID-19 patients, statewide, were being treated in hospitals.

With case rates increasing across much of the state, the number of people being treated in hospitals has risen as well. As of Thursday, April 22, a total of 283 people statewide were hospitalized with the virus.

In response, Brown announced that Baker and other counties could move into the extreme risk level if statewide hospitalizations exceed the 300-person threshold.

Baker County Commissioner Mark Bennett addressed the possibility of the county moving to extreme risk.

“The spike in cases we’ve experienced over the last four weeks has sickened and quarantined many people, and will also hurt our businesses, especially the restaurants,” Bennett said. “I hate to see us go back to high risk, and I’m concerned it will be worse next week. Thank you to the Health Department staff for their tireless work to provide good information to those who have come down with symptoms or been exposed, and to keep providing vaccines. We’re trying to make getting vaccinated as easy as possible.”

What was not clear, as of Friday afternoon, is whether a decrease in new cases in Baker County before April 30 could potentially keep the county at high risk rather than moving to extreme risk.

Baker County’s rate of new cases has more than tripled over the past month or so.

Through the first 22 days of April, the county averaged 6.1 cases per day, up from 3.1 per day during March, 2.5 per day in February and 3.4 per day in January.

The county’s worst month was December 2020, when the daily average was 6.3 cases.

Oregon reported more than 1,000 new infections on Friday, April 23, a mark that puts the state second in the nation for the rate of increase of new COVID-19 cases.

The counties that could move to extreme risk, other than Baker, are Clackamas, Columbia, Crook, Deschutes, Jackson, Josephine, Klamath, Linn, Marion, and Polk.

The restrictions would go into effect Friday, April 30. There will be no “warning week” as is usual with changes in risk levels, which delayed restrictions for a week.

“This is your warning,” Brown said.

The differences in restrictions on businesses are significant between high risk and extreme risk, most notably for restaurants, bars and theaters.

Those businesses can have indoor capacities of 25% while a county is at high risk.

But when a county is at extreme risk, indoor dining is prohibited in restaurants and bars, and theaters have significant limits on capacity, as well as a ban on consumption of food and drink.

The “fourth surge” of the pandemic will be different, offering some hopeful news to state residents and businesses.

There is now enough Moderna and Pfizer two-shot vaccine for most people in the state. The vaccination has reached three out of four people 65 and older, which means that the current spike will lead to fewer deaths among the most vulnerable age group in the population.