One month ago, I was anticipating the start of baseball season, reading articles each day about Spring Training and watching the Beavers play on the PAC-12 Network. Now each day I’m looking forward to checking the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) website.

The IHME has a dedicated COVID-19 section, which projects hospitalizations due to the coronavirus. On Sunday, April 5, the site predicted Oregon would see its peak hospitalizations on Tuesday, May 5. As an aside, and although this is no joking matter, the confluence of a virus named Corona culminating on Cinco de Mayo, which is on Taco Tuesday this year, was not lost on me. Sorry, I digress. I checked it the next day, Monday April 6, and the IHME website, whose projections have been cited in White House briefings, moved Oregon’s peak hospitalization date to April 22.

What? How in the world could the hospitalization peak be moved by 14 days? Ladies and gentlemen, I offer you the wonderful world of statistics. A world in which the model spitting out projections is only as good as the data that goes in to it.

How did Oregon gain 14 days? Social distancing is one answer, but according to an IHME press release, the new projections stem from a tremendous data infusion. Don’t get me wrong, I am happy Oregon absolutely “flattened the curve.” I’m just wondering how many more statistics have I been reading are actually a result of the age-old GIGO problem (Google it, the EO only gives me 700 words).

Another statistic I keep seeing is how much more deadly seasonal flu is than COVID-19. If you’re promulgating this statistic, I’ve got another statistic for you to consider. So far, COVID-19 is five times deadlier than the seasonal flu. Go put that one on your Facebook page and watch the carnage. Where did I get that statistic? I sure didn’t rely on social media to feed it to me. That is a lie, I saw a post about it on Facebook.

This data comes from our neighbors to the north in Washington. According to KEPR News in Tri-Cities, the Washington State Department of Health reported, as of April 9, the 2019-20 flu season in Washington has claimed 91 lives. Also, as of April 9, there were 454 deaths from COVID-19 in Washington. Let’s see, if I carry the one, yep, for the state of Washington that’s more deaths from COVID-19 than the flu. Not by a little, but by a factor of five.

Does this statistic hold up? In the same KEPR News report Benton-Franklin Health District reports five flu deaths and 27 COVID-19 deaths. Again, if I take five into 27, yep, that’s COVID-19 five times deadlier than the flu. However, if you put in some time and nose around the CDC website, Washington’s numbers are an outlier. Which statistics do we believe?

Let’s get to the really big numbers. I’ve heard many people complain this pandemic has a 98% survival rate and we’re killing our economy. Our economy is suffering and our friends and neighbors here in town are suffering because of it. Let’s apply this survivability rate to the city of Pendleton, and let’s say we achieve “herd immunity” because 70% of the population catches COVID-19 and it stops there. Pendleton’s population is 16,780. If 70% of the population catches it and 98% survive, 235 of our friends and neighbors are dead if we had not engaged in social distancing.

Are we willing to sacrifice 235 of our friends and neighbors, parents and grandparents, brothers and sisters for people to be able to go sit down with friends and drink a beer at a local watering hole? What about my friend who owns the watering hole? Should she be concerned about how dramatically Oregon’s IHME data shifted since her business was decimated and she was forced to lay off her employees and friends, knowing they would struggle to make ends meet?

We rely upon statistics to guide us down many different trails in life. Our government is relying on statistics to chart our path right now. Mark Twain helped popularize the phrase, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics.”

As we continue blazing this new COVID-19 trail, there will be more and more statistics to muddle through, leading to confusion and uncertainty about decisions we’ve made. One thing I know with absolute certainty in which statistics play no part — we are a resilient lot here in Eastern Oregon, and we have a little saying: “When things do not go right with you; when the circumstances seem to be against you and fate deals you a blow between the eyes, remember what the cowboys say in the Great Northwest, ‘Just grit your teeth, get another hold, and Let’er Buck!’”