Randy Fortenbery, Washington State University small grains economist, and Glen Squires, CEO of the Washington Grain Commission, chat before speaking Feb. 8 at the Spokane Ag Expo and Pacific Northwest Farm Forum.

SPOKANE — Washington farmers aren’t likely to see wheat prices rebound substantially for the next three to five years, an economist says.

Washington State University small grains economist Randy Fortenbery and Glen Squires, CEO of the Washington Grain Commission, delivered a joint economic forecast Wednesday at the Spokane Ag Expo and Pacific Northwest Farm Forum.

Record global wheat production and “huge” world stocks that are growing faster than demand will continue to depress commodity prices, Fortenbery said.

“The real problem has been not only have we done well, most of our global competitors have done well also,” Fortenbery said. “Unfortunately, without some sort of a production problem somewhere in this coming crop year, that’s not going to go away.”

If the situation continues, low prices will lead to stressed margins, impacting land rental rates and farm assets, Fortenbery said.

Wheat prices received in Washington state are generally a little higher than U.S. average prices, Squires said. The U.S. average price is roughly $3.80 per bushel, and the Washington average is roughly $4.29 per bushel.

Because of low wheat and corn prices, across the U.S. more farmers will shift into soybeans, whose price is doing relatively well, Fortenbery predicts.

Lower prices also mean the U.S. Department of the Treasury will pay more in crop insurance claims than anticipated, Fortenbery said.

“If you remember back in 2014, a lot of the discussion was, ‘This has to be a budget-reducing farm bill,’” Fortenbery said.

The industry will likely push for increased flexibility and a better safety net in the next farm bill, but Fortenbery said it isn’t likely to be a top priority in Washington, D.C.

Commodity groups will need to build strong coalitions to get farm bill discussions on lawmakers’ agendas, he said.