The Junta in Myanmar (formerly Burma) held elections Nov. 7, the first since 1990, based on the constitution it engineered in 2008. They are part of what the Junta calls its road map to democracy that will ostensibly replace generals with civilian leaders.   A parliament will convene soon and elect a new president.   What does this mean, I have been wondering, for Myanmars future and its most famous citizen, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, who has resolutely stood for a democratic Myanmar and opposition to the military for two decades?

 Myanmar has one of the most militarized, repressive and secretive governments in the world.  Its population, in striking contrast to its military elite who wallow in luxuries, remains in abject poverty.  Its right up there with North Korea in this regard, but Myanmar has the advantage of natural resources, which have helped it build up a tidy $5 billion in foreign reserves.

 The Juntas road map appears to be the succession plan of an aging leader who wants the trappings of democracy to legitimize long years of military rule but certainly without surrendering military power. Some 20 senior officers retired to run for a seat in the parliament.  It is hardly a surprise that these ex-military along with the military-backed candidates won 76 percent of the elected civilian seats in the national and regional assemblies. In addition, the military saved 25 percent of the assembly seats for military appointees.

 Very few people can conjure up an image of Burmas reclusive leader, Senior General Than Shwe. What is known about him barely fills a paragraph. He is a former postal clerk and soldier. He trained in the armys psychological-warfare unit. He is very superstitious and consults with soothsayers. He is unkindly referred to abroad as a bit of a thug and maybe none too bright. One cant underestimate his political skills, though, for he has stayed in power for more than two decades.

 At the vulnerable age of 78, he is thought to be using the elections to diffuse his absolute power since he doesnt want to be later arrested by a successor (as he did to General Ne Win).  It is still not clear what future role he will assume. Since he didnt run in the election, it doesnt appear that he will be elected president by the new parliament. He may ease into an honorary position where he can still exercise power.  

 General Than Shwes nemesis is Ms. Suu Kyi. He is said to hate her so intensely that he refuses to allow her name to be mentioned in his presence. Indeed, he has kept her under house arrest for most of his rule. She is the 65-year-old daughter of one of Burmas founders and her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), easily won the last elections in 1990 but was kept from assuming power by the military. Her presence in Burma, where she has resolutely stayed in spite of family separation, has kept the plight of the Burmese before the world.

 Last year, an eccentric American visitor to Yongan (Rangoon) swam across a lake to her house and gave the regime a ready excuse to extend her house arrest until after the fall 2010 elections. Senator Jim Webb of Virginia traveled to Burma last year to lobby for the release of both. The Junta released the American to him, but Ms. Suu Kyi stayed under house arrest. She was just released Nov. 13.

 When the military announced the elections and the highly restrictive election rules, Ms. Suu Kyi chose for the NLD to boycott them as an unjust process.  It was a tough decision to make between participation that would undercut the NLDs principles and a boycott that would force the partys dissolution May 7, the deadline set for registering parties. Her decision caused a split in the party.  Some members thought it was better to work within the system to bring reform to Myanmar. And this group launched a party called the National Democratic Force (NDF) that joined other small opposition parties in the elections.  The NLF won 16 seats in the new bicameral national parliament.

 The meaning of the elections is the subject of much continuing debate. Many dismiss them outright as a sham for the continued unquestioned role of the military. Others see them as offering the seeds of change through a younger generation of military leaders. Maybe the militarys hitherto iron grip might begin loosening, the optimists reason, as long as they dont feel threatened.  Maybe debate will be permitted in the assemblies on social, economic and political issues. Maybe there will be a more dynamic election contest in 2015.

 There is much conjecture in the press about Ms. Suu Kyis future role in a changed political landscape.  Some fear she is more an idealist than a good political strategist.   And today she faces other centers of opposition, including a faction of her own party. Will they choose to work with her? Also, more charity and aid groups have emerged to diffuse the public arena. And there is new dispersal of wealth among well-connected businesses, new institutions and new political players. It is not even clear how many younger Burmese still are attracted to an aging NLD leadership.

 Hence she must maneuver carefully in this new scene, and so far she has taken a conciliatory tone.   For the moment, the generals are allowing her access to the public and the foreign media and have even authorized a visa for her youngest son to visit her in Myanmar. But if she oversteps, she could easily end up under house arrest again.

 There is an enormous following for Ms. Suu Kyi in the United States and Europe and among the Burmese diaspora.  They have pressed for and obtained tough Western sanctions against the Junta as a means of pressure. But I see no result. The Junta is able to ignore them and the brunt thus falls on the general population.

 The reality is that we are up against stiff Asian competition as we try to apply leverage and influence.  China is the key protector of Myanmar as it seeks its natural resources and a port outlet. (Chinese warships made a first-ever stop in September.) Other Asian countries such as India, Thailand, Malaysia and South Korea are also in the forefront of investment in the development of Myanmars oil and natural gas, pipelines, dams, ports and much more. In fact, they have used Western absence to their economic advantage.   I must mention a chilling report I came across in the press that the military may be pursuing a nuclear weapons program with likely aid from North Korea. Imagine Myanmar joining the regional nuclear club of India, Pakistan, China and North Korea and shudder.

 So we in the West must fervently hope that these elections will indeed create new players in Myanmar with whom we can have a meaningful dialogue.

Ambassador Harriet Isom grew up in Pendleton and has retired to the family ranch. She was a career diplomat serving in Asia and Africa from 1961 to 1996.