PENDLETON — Umatilla County officials said they personally will not take any action to prevent the Pendleton Round-Up from happening. But with cases rising at greater rates than almost anywhere else in Oregon, they voiced concerns about the state stepping in.

Joe Fiumara, director of Umatilla County Public Health, said he is sure there is a point the state would act if the county did not, but he does not know what that point is.

“I don’t know what it would take for them to do that, but rising case numbers I think do put Round-Up at risk,” he said.

Umatilla County Commissioner John Shafer also said he’s fearful the Round-Up could be at risk of being shut down if cases continue to climb, but added he’s “cautiously optimistic” it will happen.

“You won’t see the commissioners shutting that down,” Shafer said, referring to Round-Up. “No way.”

He said the economic and social benefits of the event are why it’s essential the Round-Up continues as planned.

“It’s part of our heritage,” Shafer said. “I think it’s too important to shut that down.”

The county has reported more than 400 COVID-19 cases since the state and county lifted nearly all pandemic restrictions and effectively reopened on June 30, according to state data. It has consistently reported daily case counts that rank among the highest in Oregon, rivaling even Portland metro counties.

The county on Thursday, July 22, reported the highest daily total in the state with 48 new confirmed and presumptive cases. The Oregon Health Authority the same day reported 70 new cases in Umatilla County, and a report the OHA released earlier this week shows the county has reported a higher case rate than any other county in Oregon since late June.

“Our numbers are some of the highest in the state, and yet our vaccination rates are some of the lowest in the state, so is there a correlation?” said Shafer. “I’m not a scientist, but if I’m looking at the numbers, I’ve gotta say it’s related. The cases we’re seeing are from unvaccinated people.”

Emily Smith, a spokesperson for CHI St. Anthony Hospital in Pendleton, said the hospital has recently seen an uptick in COVID-19 hospitalizations and COVID-19 cases in the emergency department. Over the past few days, she said, between 20-30% of patients tested in the emergency department had COVID-19, after several weeks where the hospital didn’t see a single COVID-19 inpatient.

“I know people have heard it a hundred times but please stress the importance of getting vaccinated against COVID-19,” Smith said in an email to the East Oregonian.

Officials suspect the highly contagious delta variant, which has been confirmed to be spreading in Umatilla County, is contributing to the case spike. But to what extent is unclear.

Fiumara said health officials are watching closely to see if recent large events, such as the Pendleton Whisky Music Fest, create an increase in cases. If it does, he said, that will be a strong indicator of what could happen when the Pendleton Round-Up brings thousands of people to town.

“If Whisky Fest happens and there’s huge case spikes because of it, it doesn’t speak well for Round-Up,” he said. “I do think there’s a risk, I just can’t speak to how large that risk is yet.”

Gov. Kate Brown said in June the Round-Up would go on after a COVID-19 caused cancellation in 2020.

“Let ‘er buck,” Brown said, using a popular saying for the event.

But she made the statements when COVID-19 infections were in steep decline and as Oregon pushed toward its 70% vaccination benchmark. Since the state reached that goal in early July, Umatilla County vaccine rate has lagged behind the state.

Delta variant surging

The highly contagious COVID-19 delta variant has caused a steep increase in the number of infections in Oregon — but with different impacts across the state.

“Oregon is open, but the pandemic is not over,” said OHA Director Pat Allen during a press call Thursday, July 22.

COVID-19 infections by the delta variant have doubled in the past week, leading to a new spike in total numbers. OHA reported the number of delta variant cases had risen 25% between July 21 and 22 alone.

The delta variant now accounts for over half of all COVID-19 cases in Oregon and is likely to rise, mirroring the national average of 80%.

The statistics were rolled out at OHA’s first high-profile press briefing since Brown ended statewide COVID-19 restrictions June 30.

Allen demurred, however, on if the state would step in to curb or cancel the Round-Up in September if Umatilla County’s infection rates stayed at current levels.

“Two or three months in the future are an eternity” in the pandemic, he said.

The rise in cases comes as vaccinations in the state have slowed to a trickle. While about 2.4 million residents have received at least one shot of vaccine, Allen said the latest daily number of new inoculations was about 2,000. That’s down from a peak of over 50,000 on some days in early April.

Allen said COVID-19 cases are surging, up tenfold in the past week. The delta variant spreads up to 75% faster than the original COVID-19 virus that first appeared in Oregon in February 2020.

The spread of the virus is not evenly spread throughout Oregon as in earlier spikes, OHA reported.

Umatilla County in spotlight

Allen singled out Umatilla County, which has vaccinated just under 43% of eligible adults and had 70 new cases, according to the OHA. Portland State University’s Population Research Center estimated the 2020 population of the county at almost 81,500 residents.

In contrast, Washington County, near Portland, had 43 new cases and has vaccinated 75% of eligible adults. It’s 2020 population is just more than 620,000.

Statewide, the percentage of positive cases averaged 3.8% through the two-week period ending July 17. But in Umatilla County, the percentage was 12.4% and Morrow County was 14.4%.

In contrast, Multnomah County — which includes Portland — was 2%. Lane County — including Eugene — was 2.9%. And Deschutes County — including Bend — was 3.4%. But OHA reported even these small percentages were increases over the prior two-week periods going back to June 20.

Clatsop County, at 4%, was one of the few counties to report a drop in infections over the period.

“The pandemic is fading for those that are vaccinated — they can resume activities with relative peace of mind,” Allen said.

While significantly more contagious, the delta variant has not been shown to be any more virulent or able to break through vaccines that have been widely available since spring.

While infections and hospitalizations are rising, the number of deaths is expected to be capped well below levels seen last winter when the virus was rampant and no vaccines were available.

Allen said that despite the July 22 press call to publicize the extent of the delta variant, there were no plans for Brown or OHA to step in and exert control over local decisions.

“The state is trying to be hands-off and hand things down to local government,” Fiumara said.

While OHA was ready to help with additional vaccine and other support, it is up to county health departments to take a measure of the local impact of the virus and for county commissioners to decide what should be done.

Salem would not issue edicts, but advice.

“Take action now,” Allen said of counties with lagging vaccination rates.

Allen pointed to state statistics showing that 15 out of 36 counties had started vaccinating less than half their adult population. Statewide the number is about 70%.

Unvaccinated most at risk

Dean Sidelinger, the state health officer and chief epidemiologist, said the jump in infections should be a “red alert” for those who have not been vaccinated.

“You are at higher risk now than you were earlier in the pandemic and you are putting the people around you at risk,” Sidelinger said.

Not moving to increase vaccination levels would mean the shadow of the pandemic would continue in communities, schools, workplaces and gatherings.

“The virus looms large,” Sidelinger said.

OHA again said it was hoping for increased persuasion and for local influential individuals and political leaders to take action. There were no plans for new mandates, or to tell employers they should require vaccinations.

Citing the “highly political” nature of the COVID-19 debate, Allen said efforts to increase vaccinations had to come from trusted local sources, including civic and faith leaders, as well as political officeholders.

Soon after the transfer of responsibility to counties, the governor’s office said it would monitor the response.

“Oregon is moving into the next chapter of this pandemic,” Brown spokesperson Charles Boyle said July 7. “While our statewide response will now look different, OHA continues to have an ongoing leadership role working with local public health partners in vaccination efforts, as well as pandemic response and recovery.”

Boyle said Brown was aware of the already rising impact of the delta variant in other parts of the nation.

“We will continue to monitor the spread of variants closely,” Boyle said.

While transferring daily control of the pandemic response to counties, Brown has not lifted the state emergency order that has been in place since March 2020 and renewed several times.

Allen said getting people to realize the gravity of the pandemic and to make their own choice to get vaccinated was going to work best.

“I don’t care what you think, you have to get vaccinated,” he said, was a message that wouldn’t help anyone.

Allen also said he had conversations with many leaders of all political views and it was up to them to decide their public role when it comes to addressing vaccination.

“Let them speak for themselves,” he said, adding, “Who are the right messengers, what is the right message?”

Up until June 30, the state had decided the risk level for infection in each county and what restrictions should be in place. Though Brown officially disconnected the risk analysis from state response, the state still reports the statistics each Monday.

OHA on July 21 posted an update showing the number of confirmed cases of the COVID-19 delta variant had more than doubled, from 43 to 90, between reports on July 10 and July 17.

OHA officials say the prevalence of the delta variant likely is an undercount, as sequencing data can take weeks to be reported and not all coronavirus cases are tested for the variant.

COVID-19 has killed over 610,000 Americans and 4.1 million people worldwide. Many of the variants have had their origins thousands of miles away from Oregon, but in modern times can reach anywhere on the globe in a relatively short time.

Sidelinger said the pandemic has had many turning points for bad and good.

Thinking that it is defeated would “come at a high cost.”

“Our fight is not over,” he said. “COVID-19 is a stubborn foe.”