PENDLETON — The ZIP code encompassing the city of Pendleton reported the largest uptick in COVID-19 vaccinations in the state during the past week, mostly due to a new batch of vaccine data that had yet to be reported to the Oregon Health Authority.

According to the state, the ZIP code reported 1,429 residents vaccinated for the first time in the past week, bringing the county’s weekly total to 2,271. That’s about three times as many as the previous week, as reported by The Oregonian/OregonLive.

The data, according to Joe Fiumara, the county’s public health director, was largely from vaccinations at Yellowhawk Tribal Health Center from December 2020 through April 2021.

The health center held multiple mass vaccine clinics with the National Guard in the winter and spring, vaccinating thousands of residents. But the National Guard reports its data to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, officials have said, meaning that for months much of that data was not reported to the state.

The data comes amid a larger effort from state and county officials attempting to track down the county’s true vaccination rate. In May, lawmakers reached out to Gov. Kate Brown’s office, noting many county residents had been vaccinated either by tribal health officials or in Washington and voicing concerns the data wasn’t being counted.

Though the new data represents a decent uptick, Fiumara said there’s likely much more to come. He estimated the county could see between a 5% to 10% increase in its overall vaccine rate, but even that isn’t likely to raise the county’s vaccine rate past 65%, the benchmark the state set for counties to move to lower risk.

“We still have some gaps,” he said. “Again, these are not gaps that magically get us to 70%. But these are gaps that — it wouldn’t surprise me if we’re talking 5 to 10%.”

Fiumara said it’s most likely the county will see restrictions lifted when Oregon reaches the 70% vaccine threshold the state set for reopening its economy. State health officials have projected meeting the benchmark by the end of June.

Cases on the decline

The new data comes as COVID-19 case counts continue a gradual decline in the county, following statewide trends. State health officials reported declining cases for six consecutive weeks until the week ending Sunday, June 13, which saw a 3% increase in cases, according to state health data.

Fiumara said the county’s decline does not mimic the state’s, but the data shows similar, promising signs that the pandemic is subsiding. The county has reported declining cases for five consecutive weeks, according to county health data.

“We are declining,” Fiumara said. “We peaked a couple of weeks ago, it seems. And it has been going down since then. So I think we’re following the same trend.”

With low vaccination rates overall, “the curious thing will be to see if we fall as far” as the state’s case rates, Fiumara said. He added it’s possible the county will continue to see case spikes in the coming months due to low vaccination rates.

“I think we are likely going to see some flareups,” he said. “They’ll hopefully be nowhere as large as what we’ve seen in the past.”

Fiumara said he expects to see cases rise in response to the upcoming Fourth of July holiday.

“We are assuming there’s going to be some events going on,” he said. “There’s going to be vendors and there’s going to be people very happy to be out and about and not being required to have any restrictions. It is entirely possible that we end up with some spikes in cases out of that. It’s just the nature of people being out and about and not everyone being vaccinated.”

Fiumara added he hopes any case spikes will be hindered by enough residents being vaccinated. He estimated that over the past few weeks, county vaccinations have fallen from 1,200 per week to around 800 per week.

More than 5,700 county residents have been vaccinated since the beginning of May, according to county data.

“More folks are being vaccinated,” he said. “It’s not the size we’d like. But as more folks continue to get vaccinated, we’ll keep these flareups” under control.

In Gov. Kate Brown’s most recent assessment, Umatilla County remained at high risk, with stringent restrictions on indoor gatherings and commerce, while Union, Morrow, Baker and Wallowa counties have all fallen to lower risk.

In all, 25,435 doses have been delivered in the county, according to an Oregonian/OregonLive database. That’s roughly 31% of the county’s total population, the third lowest percentage in Oregon.