SALEM — Umatilla County could move back to the high coronavirus risk category as it begins a “two-week caution period” starting Friday, April 23, amid a sharp spike in COVID-19 cases.

Umatilla County reported 84 cases over the last two weeks, a total that would qualify it for high risk, bringing increased restrictions on indoor activities and commerce countywide.

“It’s very disappointing and very disturbing,” Umatilla County Commissioner George Murdock said of the recent uptick in cases.

In a press release on Tuesday, April 20, Gov. Kate Brown announced that 10 counties in Oregon will move to high risk this week after reporting increased rates of infection. And two other counties — Malheur and Grant — would join Umatilla in the “two-week caution period.”

The state determines a county’s risk level every two weeks based around reported cases and infection rates, but will allow a county to remain at its current level in a “two-week caution period” if it moved down in the most recent assessment.

Umatilla County moved to moderate risk on April 9 after reporting some of its lowest COVID-19 totals since spring 2020, according to data from the county health department. Last week, however, the county reported a sharp increase of 54 new cases.

“It isn’t just a little bit of an increase,” Murdock said. “It’s enough of an increase that, when you’re flirting with moderate (risk) versus high (risk), you can’t afford a week like that. Because of the two-week rolling average, it hurts you for the long run. Hopefully, we can get the numbers down next week, but they would have to go down a lot.”

Due to its population, Umatilla County would need to report fewer than 82 COVID-19 cases between April 18 and May 1 to remain at moderate risk, officials said.

At high risk, restaurants, religious establishments and fitness facilities would remain open but only at 25% indoor capacity. Grocery stores and other retail establishments can also remain open at 50%, according to the state.

“I don’t know how much longer our restaurants and (businesses) can afford a roller coaster,” Murdock said. “They’ve had an awfully long year. If we were to go to a higher (risk) level and cut down on restaurant capacity, I don’t know how many more times they can do it.”

Fourth wave

The spike reflects statewide trends as reported cases and hospitalizations are spiking. New daily cases have increased by approximately 55% in the past two weeks and 150% in the past month, and now, more than half of the state’s counties are at high risk for COVID-19 transmission, according to the Oregon Health Authority as of April 20.

The number of Oregonians hospitalized with COVID-19 has also increased by 49% in the past two weeks, topping the national average of 10%. Over the past month, hospitalizations have increased by roughly 140%, according to The Oregonian/OregonLive.

Murdock said contact tracers from the Umatilla County Public Health Department have reported cases predominantly stemming from social gatherings, including weddings and family gatherings. He added that the majority of cases are being reported from young people between the ages of 20 and 40.

“We simply have to get our numbers back down,” he said. “We’re having too many gatherings. People are kind of letting their guard down, if you will, and up go the numbers. And that’s going to have a long-term impact. So we thought we were escaping what was happening (in Western Oregon), but apparently not.”

What’s at stake

If cases do not begin to decline soon, officials are concerned that major summer events like the Pendleton Whisky Music Fest and the Pendleton Round-Up could be canceled, laying a burden on local businesses that rely heavily on the economic benefit brought by the events.

“These events have to make commitments a long time in advance,” Murdock said. “Round-Up alone is worth about $65 million to our community. We lost it last year, I don’t think we can afford to lose it this year. That’s my fear.”

Murdock added that Whisky Fest likely has “a matter of weeks” before a decision will have to be made.

Umatilla County Commissioner John Shafer said he sees one solution — the vaccine.

“People are wanting to open up and everything else, and we have a perfect driver for that in getting vaccinations,” he said. “Then we see how many people are coming to the vaccination sites, it kind of surprises me. Everybody wants our county to open up fully and they want to have Round-Up and Whisky Fest and all these things, and yet there’s not a very big showing at the vaccination sites.”

Murdock said the number of people showing to get vaccinated at county clinics is continuing to decline, describing the choice to do so as “mind boggling.”

“If everyone got vaccinated, we wouldn’t have a problem,” he said. “But we have people not choosing to do so, so this is what our world looks like.”

Shafer said he believes that political beliefs have loomed too large in the decision to get vaccinated.

“It was designed under a Republican administration. And now a Democrat administration is pushing it out,” he said. “I can’t figure out why this is such a polarizing vaccination. You didn’t see this with the flu vaccination. People either got it or they didn’t. There was no big political discussion about it.”

Shafer said he would “highly encourage” that people get vaccinated so that “we can get our numbers back down.”

“There are several events that have already been canceled, and I can’t stand to see any more get canceled because of something that might be preventable with the vaccine,” he said.