COVID in Oregon: Beaver State not getting hit as hard as the rest of the nation
Published 9:00 am Thursday, May 28, 2020
- Shoppers wearing masks depart Safeway in Pendleton in early April. On Monday, June 29, 2020 Gov. Kate Brown announced that beginning Wednesday, July 1, all Oregonians will be required to wear a mask when in an indoor public space.
LA GRANDE — Oregon has seen a much lower breakout of coronavirus cases when compared to most of the nation.
As of Thursday, the state had recorded 3,817 cases of COVID-19, according to the Oregon Health Authority. Less than one-tenth of 1% of Oregon’s more than 4 million residents have tested positive. The number itself is lower than some less populous states — South Dakota, New Mexico and Mississippi are just three examples with a lower population that have more confirmed cases of the coronavirus. Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Hawaii and Alaska are all states with fewer overall cases.
Some of those states, however, have a higher incidence rate than the Beaver State, according to data on the Johns Hopkins University website. In fact, Oregon is in the bottom five of states with the lowest incidence rates in the nation. Just 90.50 per 100,000 Oregonians have tested positive for the virus. Only Montana, Alaska, Hawaii and West Virginia have lower percentages of the population to contract the virus.
The state, though, also ranks near the bottom of the nation in terms of testing at 46th. Just four states — Arizona, Colorado, Kansas and Idaho — have a testing rate lower than Oregon’s 2,494.80 per 100,000 residents. Oregon as of Thursday had conducted 105,132 tests for the coronavirus, and more than 96% of them have come back negative.
So why does Oregon have a lower number of cases than most of the nation?
The low number of tests would seem to be the obvious answer, until you compare the state to others with similar testing rates. Virginia, for example, has a similar testing rate at 2,561.05 per 100,000, but an incidence rate of 399.94 per 100,000. Virginia does have more than double the population of Oregon, at about 8.5 million, which can partly account for the higher number, but the numbers still show the virus infecting four times as high, and still double if you figure in population.
The 12 states with population most similar to Oregon (six above and six below) all have a higher incidence rate than Oregon, but all of them also (with the exception of Colorado) have a higher test rate.
But each state in the list has a worse testing rate-to-incidence rate ratio than Oregon, many several times worse. This means even if Oregon conducted the same number of tests as every state immediately around it — by population — it likely still would have fewer confirmed COVID-19 cases. Through Thursday, Oregon has a ratio of one case per every 27.57 tests. Oklahoma and Utah have rates of 1-of-26.34 and 1-of-23.22, respectively, measures closest to Oregon’s number. Colorado, the one state with fewer tests per capita than Oregon, has a ratio of one confirmation for every 5.95 tests.
The 12 states have an average testing rate of 3,911.65 per 100,000 and an incidence rate of 378.96, meaning that even combined, their states have a rate of one confirmation per 10.32 tests, making Oregon almost three times better.
The national test rate as of Thursday was about 3,956 per 100,000 and the incidence rate 477, for a ratio of one confirmation per 8.29 tests.
According to Umatilla County Public Health, 121 county residents have a confirmed or presumed case of COVID-19 as of Monday, including three deaths. Fourteen cases are still active.
The 1,836 tests conducted in Umatilla County only represents 2% of the county’s population while the number of positive tests represents only 0.2%.
Of Oregon’s cases, 45.85% involve patients who are 50 years of age or older, and that age bracket accounts for all but three of the state’s deaths. Patients 70 or older account for 74.48% of the deaths in the state and have a mortality rate of 19.08%. The rate for the rest of the state’s patients is 1.14%.
Women have accounted for a higher rate of illness in Oregon at 52.48%, but men account for 57.24% of the patients who have died.
— East Oregonian Reporter Antonio Sierra contributed to this report.